So youre out at some trendy yuppie bar on a Friday night. Not really your scene, but you give it a shot. Next thing you know youre talking to some smoking-hot blonde. Long legs. Good job. No apparent boyfriend. Doesnt appear to be a psycho. Youre in.

But something doesnt seem right. Is she laughing a little too hard at your jokes? You cant put your finger on it. Instead of taking her back to your place and putting points on the board you settle for her phone number. A week goes by and you give her a call, but she doesnt really remember you and it ends with a really awkward conversation.

Thats how I feel about the 2006 Denver Broncos. They seem like the quintessential Super Bowl team and a tremendous value at 15-to-1 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. They have the tools and the talent to be considered a serious contender, but theres something shady about last years AFC Championship loser.

Much of that cloud has to do with the maddeningly inconsistent Jake Plummer. But its more than that. Drafting future quarterback Jay Cutler instead of grabbing someone who wouldve paid immediate dividends was perplexing. Ashley Lelies holdout reeks of bad karma. The running back situation is muddled. Also, they let one of their best defenders walk.

But thats nit-picking. The core is intact on a team that won 14 games and was 60 minutes from the Super Bowl. Theres a perfect blend of experience and athleticism, and they are hungry after last seasons near-miss. That being said, I would proceed with caution. They were the best team in the NFL against the spread last year and the books have a funny way of over-correcting.

Heres Docs 2006 Denver Broncos Preview:

2005 Record: 14-4 (9-1 home, 5-3 road)
2005 Rankings: 5th offense (18th pass, 2nd run); 15th defense (29th pass, 2nd run).
2005 Against the Spread: 12-5-1 (6-3-1 home, 6-2 road); 10-8 vs. total (4-4 h, 6-2 r)
2006 Odds: 15/1 to win Super Bowl, 6/1 to win AFC, +115 to win AFC West, 10 wins O/U
2006 Strength of Schedule: 12th (.516 opp. win %)
Key stat: Defensively, no team had fewer sacks per pass than the Broncos. They faced 641 passes and managed only 28 sacks. Thats one every 23 attempts. Whats troubling is that they blitzed 38 percent (246 times) of the time.
Returning starters: 19 (9 offense, 10 defense)

Key acquisitions: Javon Walker, WR (from G.B.); Kenard Lang, DE (from); Nate Webster, LB (from); Tony Scheffler, TE (draft); Adam Meadows, OL (FA).

Key departures: Trevor Pryce, DE; Mike Anderson, RB; Jeb Putzier, TE; Marco Coleman, DE.

Offense: The release of Mike Anderson marked the third consecutive year that they let a 1,000 rusher go. You have to wonder when their RB luck will run out. Or maybe it isnt luck. They bring back all five of their linemen all of which started every game last season. I dont think they can afford to lose Ashley Lelie because Rod Smith is now 36 years old. If they do ditch Lelie, they need to get a starting running back, a 250-300 carry guy, for him. I wouldnt consider them explosive, but I will be surprised if they dont average around 22 points per game. Defense:Denver intends to blitz less this season and try to get more pressure from its front four. Pryces departure wont help with that scenario. Their pass defense is actually much better than their No. 29 ranking. Teams only completed 56.1 percent of their passes against Denver, third in the league. Also, they forced 36 turnovers last season. That wont happen again. But the key will be to maintain a positive turnover ratio. If theyre somewhere between +8 and +16 theyll be back in the postseason.

X-factor: Ron Dayne. Do you see Dayne, a complete bust up to this point, as the starting back on a Super Bowl team? Hell split carries with Tatum Bell, but Dayne has to do the heavy lifting. Outlook: You know not to trust Plummer, but I still hold out a shred of hope that he can post one redemptive season. Even if he cant, Denver has skill, experience and athleticism at every position. In 2005 the Broncos were one of the most dominating teams in the NFL, posting a +8 average scoring differential. Barring injuries, I dont think theyll lose that overnig